🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks in the past when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or a cause for the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have piled up.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have just won ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be a different scenario where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.