A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
