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A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was officially announced, raising questions about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event.

Sudden Shift in Wagers

Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month increased in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody.

One account, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a modest bet of $32,537.

It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement

Market statistics shows that participants assessed the probability of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

But the market's assessment had jumped to 11% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the social media post was made.

"That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate.

A handful of other platform users also profited large payouts from bets on the same outcome.

Regulatory Scrutiny Grows

Some lawmakers are starting to take note.

Proposed legislation presented on recently seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a bet.

Industry Context

Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in the past few years, with traders able to predict everything from sports to political events.

The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency.

Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."